How will ‘El Niño’ affect the 2023 cyclone season?

Sunday 4 June, 2023
2 mins read

For months, the meteorological and climatological agencies have warned about the imminent arrival of the phenomenon known as “El Niño”. In this regard, a few days ago, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (POT) published a satellite photo where you could see the first effects on Earth of it.

Now, because the “El Niño” phenomenon has different consequences around our world then we will tell you, specifically, how will this influence hurricanes that are contemplated for this 2023.

First of all, it should be noted that the meteorological phenomenon known as “El Niño” has two phases: on the one hand, the “La Niña” phase, and, on the other hand, the “El Niño” phase itself. .

Now, even though higher temperatures are forecast for México As a result of the arrival of this meteorological phenomenon, at the same time, according to experts, fewer hurricanes and tropical storms would be registered throughout this year.

And it is that, after three winters in a row, the bad weather of the “La Niña” phase has ended, so there are high possibilities that the number of hurricanes that occur in México, the Caribbean and the United States will be reduced.

According to what was disclosed by Bloomberg Regarding what was said last March of this year by the United States Climate Prediction Center, in a final notice on the La Niña phenomenon, the cooling of the waters in the equatorial Pacific has given way to normal temperatures, which indicates the end of said climatological phenomenon.

Thus, at the end of La Niña, there are possibilities that the temperature on the surface of the Pacific Ocean the current year and, in this way, derives in El Niño.

El Niño, in this sense, is characterized by modifying the global weather patterns, although in a different way than La Niña, which caused droughts in the United States. This is how it is expected to be able to form higher number of winter storms in the southern USA, as well as better conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

Likewise, El Niño, during the end of summer in the North Hemisphere (Europe, North America, Central America, Asia and Africa, mainly), would increase the wind shear across the Atlantic, which, in turn, would help destroy the tropical systems budding and would also weaken those that may be formed.

The above, experts have pointed out, the total number of hurricanes would decrease, thus reducing the possibility of their devastating effects in México, the United States and the Caribbean.

However, it will be necessary to clarify that the specialists They calculate that there is a 61% probability that El Niño will begin to make an appearance in the Pacific between the months of August and October. However, there are meteorologists who are hesitant to support these forecasts, since the La Niña and El Niño models in the months of March and April are generally less accurate, so there is no consensus on what will happen in the next few months. 6 months.

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Source: Cristina Herrera from DEBATE on 2023-06-03 20:33:06

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