The most important decision

Mauricio Merino has prescribed us a dose of realism in his latest article in El Universal (15/06/24). The title speaks for itself, There will be no turning back. “Many continue to believe that there will be a reversal in the reform of the Judicial Branch and/or that the super-majority of the Morena and its allies in the Chamber of Deputies and/or that Dr. Sheinbaum will qualify or even stop, … plan C conceived by President López Obrador and/or that the INE will not be touched and/or that the Inai will remain intact. In a word, they believe that nothing will happen … of what has been announced. They are wrong. The political project that won the elections on June 2 has proposed to modify the Mexican political regime and has the means, the will and sufficient political support to achieve it.

His arguments make perfect political sense. I have no way of refuting them. At the same time, I hope he is completely wrong. I refuse to follow his fatalistic conclusion that “we need to put our feet on the ground that México is on the threshold of a new regime.” An electoral autocracy, he calls it.

We are on that threshold, but it is not time to surrender. It is not just a matter of having hope, but of contributing to things happening differently. There are fronts on which democrats of any party or social denomination have to keep trying.

Analysts, academia and commentators must continue to argue the reasons why over-representation is a violation of the Constitution and to warn about the consequences of Plan C. We must continue to make proposals and try to get decision-makers – the government, legislators, councillors and magistrates – to take them into account. It is imperative to take advantage of the few openings and dialogue with all of them so that they can assess what it would mean to cease being a democracy.

The private sector has an important role to play. They are better positioned than anyone to talk and negotiate with the outgoing President and the incoming President (especially with the latter and her team) to reach agreements that include their particular interests with the general interest of maintaining a democratic nation. They are in a good position to use all their real resources to convince the new government that Plan C, far from helping productive investment and growth, is against them. It is not about threatening but about dialoguing and collaborating in a two-way path. The hyper-concentration of power may be attractive to the new President and may benefit some businessmen with names and surnames, but not the system as a whole. Neither the economic and social objectives declared by Sheinbaum nor the interests of the business sector as a whole. This is not the time to persist in the strategy of the six-year term that is about to end. We have all learned. Many were affected by the energy reform or the attempts to equate tax fraud with organized crime or the expropriation decrees or the extortionate collection of taxes or the direct allocations that left many companies out of the competition. In the Judiciary and in the Court they had a barrier against the discretionary exercise of power, and they would no longer have it.

A third “sector” that cannot throw in the towel is the international sector. Foreign investors, democratic governments around the world and global organisations have the tools to influence the near future. Trade agreements and democratic clauses have rules and they must be enforced.

The opposition parties, however weakened they may be, also have a role to play. Once the distribution of deputies has been assigned, they have four days to lodge their objections. There are plenty of arguments to prevent a violation of the Constitution of the magnitude that is looming. They cannot leave opposition voters without representation that even moderately reflects their electoral preference. They cannot allow them to occupy only 25 percent of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies with a vote of 41 percent.

The judiciary is already acting and must continue to do so to defend its autonomy and independence.

We can all contribute, but at this point there are only nine people responsible for the most important decision that Mexican democracy will have faced since the transition began: six INE counselors and three magistrates (four if they appoint one more) of the Electoral Tribunal.

We must all aim our guns at them, each with the instruments and influence at their disposal. It is up to all of us to contribute to ensuring that Mauricio Merino’s dictum does not become a reality.

One last naivety. In the team that Claudia Sheinbaum is building, there are opponents of the enormous concentration of power that Plan C represents and of the project to create an electoral system that would return us to super-majorities. There are defenders of an electoral system of proportional representation. They too have their share of responsibility.