Because the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel is the largest criminal organization in Mexico, the dejection of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes will cause important changes in the country’s criminal dynamics, transforming said organization and its relationship with the rest of the criminal groups. but it is also legitimate to ask ourselves if the fall of Nemesio Oseguera will have an impact beyond Mexico and affect the crime landscape in other countries.

The CJNG has extensive global coverage, since, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), it has a presence in more than 40 countries and in its own investigation, based on press releases, I was able to locate its action in 61 countries of the 5 continents.

However, the effect on countries will be differentiated. The impact will be high in those countries where the CJNG has taken sides in favor of other local criminal organizations, has established regular operations, its presence aims to purchase supplies and there is a multiplicity of actors that can generate violence.

On the other hand, the impact of the transformation of the CJNG will not have major effects in those countries where said organization is present for the sale of drugs, since local criminal gangs, if they need the supply, will look for other suppliers in Mexico or Latin America, as many of them have done in the past.

In this sense, it is very important to identify CJNG allied organizations in other countries, so based on a search, 29 organizations from 16 different countries were fully identified, with which it carries out transnational criminal activities, especially focused on illegal drug trafficking, although they also participate in other criminal activities. In the following map you can see these organizations and the countries of origin.

Primeiro Comando Capital is not only the most powerful organization in Brazil, but also has influence in Bolivia, Uruguay and Paraguay; Likewise, the Hells Angels motorcycle gang, whose activity in coordination with the CJNG in Canada was documented in this case.

The truth is that it is a global club, born in the United States, but with a presence in 66 countries, where not all its chapters participate in criminal activities, but it cannot be ruled out that in several countries they participate as members of the CJNG in the distribution of drugs.

In fact, almost the entire drug distribution process of the CJNG in Europe is done through four criminal organizations, which have a presence in several countries, the Albanian Mafia which has operations not only in the Balkans, but throughout the Benelux, Scandinavia, Great Britain, France and Germany, the ‘Ndrangheta of Italian origin, but with operations throughout Western Europe, the Camorra, which in addition to Italy has a relevant presence in Spain, and the Mocro Mafia, which is a gang of Moroccan origin that has an excellent position in the port of Rotterdam in Holland and in the south of France, in addition to operating in Morocco, since where drugs are shipped to European coasts in speedboats.

So the CJNG does not require an ally in every country in Europe, but rather those four alliances allow it to cover the entire continent and even parts of North Africa.

Something similar to what happens with its alliance with the Nigerian Mafia, with which the CJNG has installed synthetic drug production laboratories in Nigeria, Kenya and probably other African countries.

But upon returning to the original question, yes in any of these countries the fall of Nemesio Oseguera will have a relevant impact that moves the criminal board; In this regard, we must accept that in most of them the impact will be null or minimal, for example, in Colombia, where the CJNG maintains commercial relations with the Clan del Golfo, the FARC and the ELN, however these three organizations are also related to the Sinaloa Cartel and other Mexican cartels, therefore, there is no exclusivity, and if the CJNG fragments, they will surely continue working with the resulting factions, so that in Colombia the impact could be minimal.

Something similar will happen in Europe, Japan, Australia or Canada, since being consumer markets, local organizations can easily change suppliers, the same happens with countries that sell inputs such as China, where they sell precursors to all organizations. who seek to buy them, therefore, can replace customers.

On the other hand, in Ecuador it could have a profound impact, since there the CJNG has commercial agreements with 5 local gangs: the Lobos, the Lagartos, the Chone Killers, the Tiguerones and Comandos de la Frontera, while the Sinaloa Cartel maintains relations with the Choneros, an antagonistic group of these gangs, therefore, in the case of Ecuador, the gangs do have exclusivity and the Mexican cartels have taken sides in the internal dispute, financing local gangs, sending reinforcements and giving them advice.

Therefore, if the CJNG faces problems and even fragments, it will lead to changes in the correlation of forces in the dispute between the Choneros and the Lobos, therefore, the more the internal cohesion of the CJNG weakens, the greater the risk the Lobos, its main allies in Ecuador, lose spaces in favor of the Choneros, so unlike other cases, in Ecuador the future of the cartel will matter.

Another country that may be affected, although to a lesser extent, is Guatemala, since a satellite organization of the CJNG operates there, which is the Chiapas and Guatemala Cartel, which those from Jalisco financed to dispute Chiapas and Huehuetenango in Guatemala against Mayiza. of the Sinaloa Cartel, so if the CJNG fragments or suffers internal disputes, these would weaken the position of this local cartel benefiting those of Sinaloa.

The United States presents a different picture, since it would have mixed effects, because there are many local gangs that distribute drugs in many cities for different cartels.

Of these gangs, some operate exclusively with certain cartels and others that work with several, so in addition the weakening of the CJNG would have a limited effect, where the lost spaces will be occupied by rival organizations and the greatest impact would be in cities like Los Angeles or Chicago, where many gangs operate simultaneously.

In conclusion, although in Mexico the changes in the CJNG are going to translate into important movements on the criminal board, at the international level the impact is far from profound and, above all, it will have to be limited to a few countries such as Ecuador, Guatemala or very specific parts of the United States.